With Bashar al-Assad Out, What’s Next For Syria?

After more than two decades under the rule of President Bashar al-Assad, Syria, the war-torn Middle Eastern nation of 25 million people, is under new management.

On Dec. 8, a coalition of rebel forces took over the capitol city of Damascus and other key regions, sending the former dictator into exile in Russia and sparking hope for an end to the country’s decade-plus civil war. For more on these developments, Texas A&M Today spoke with Dr. Amy Austin Holmes, an instructional associate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. A former adviser to the U.S. Department of State on Iraq and Syria, Holmes is the author of “Statelet of Survivors,” a 2024 book based on her seven-year field survey of the Syrian Democratic Forces, one of the key groups involved in operations to overthrow Assad.

As Holmes explains, a number of questions remain about the nation’s new direction and the United States’ posture toward a post-Assad Syria.

Q: Why is the end of the Assad regime such a historic moment for Syria?

A: The end of the Assad regime has been likened to 1989 in the Middle East — the collapse of an old order. Assad’s family dynasty had ruled Syria for more than half a century: first under Hafez al-Assad and then Bashar al-Assad. The two main backers of the regime were Russia and Iran.  The fall of Assad means the loss of Russian influence in Syria, similar to the fall of communism in Eastern Europe in 1989.

I’m not claiming to have predicted the fall of the Assad regime, but I had made the point already in October, in interviews I did with Harvard and Texas A&M, that the fact that Russia and Iran were distracted from Syria was an opportunity to resolve the Syrian conflict.

Q: What is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS, and how did this group manage to oust Assad after more than a decade of civil war?

A: HTS is an offshoot of al-Qaida and is designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, United States and other countries. However, the leader of HTS, Ahmad al-Sharaa (better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has gone on a charm offensive the past couple years, trying to convince the West that he has renounced his previous extremist beliefs and become a “moderate rebel.”

HTS is just one of four rebel groups that ousted Assad. The others are the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the U.S. partner force that defeated ISIS; a group called the Southern Front; and the Syrian National Army (SNA), backed by Turkey.

Q: What else is known about HTS’s leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa?

A: He was born in Syria in 1982, then joined foreign fighters in Iraq after 2003. In 2011, when the Syrian uprising turned into a civil war, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), sent Jolani to Syria to establish the Al-Nusra Front, a branch of al-Qaida. In 2017, he broke with al-Qaida to form HTS.

Q: What does this mean for the millions of Syrian refugees who have fled the country over the course of the civil war?

A: There are already reports that some Syrian refugees are trying to return to Syria.  According to the UN refugee agency, as many as 1 million Syrian refugees may return to their home country in the first six months of 2025. Several European countries, including Germany and Austria, have announced that they would no longer accept Syrians as asylum seekers, now that Assad is gone.

Q: What role might the U.S. play in Syria’s future?

A: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. will recognize a Syrian government if it adheres to four principles: respect the rights of minorities, facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance, prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism or posing a threat to its neighbors, and ensuring chemical or biological weapons are secured and safely destroyed.

On Dec. 16, President-elect Donald Trump referred to the rebel victory in Syria as “an unfriendly takeover by Turkey.”  It’s too early to know what Trump will do.

Q: What will happen to Bashar al-Assad himself now that he has been forced from office? Will the former Syrian leader face trial for war crimes or human rights abuses?

A: High-ranking figures of Assad’s regime have already been charged with war crimes. For example, on Dec. 9, an indictment was unsealed in the Northern District of Illinois charging two former Syrian Air Force intelligence officers, Jamil Hassan and Abdul Salam Mahmoud, with conspiracy to commit war crimes through the infliction of cruel and inhuman treatment on detainees under their control, including U.S. citizens. So yes, I am hopeful that Bashar al-Assad will also face justice.

Q: Is there anything else people should know about the situation in Syria?

A: It’s important to understand that the Syrian rebel groups have distinct priorities and ideologies. While HTS marched on Damascus, and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) expelled the Syrian regime from Qamishlo and Hasakah, the SNA, guided by Turkey, instead took aim at the SDF, the U.S. partner force that defeated ISIS. The Turkish-Kurdish conflict is playing out in Syria, and risks undermining everything that has been achieved since the defeat of ISIS. It could also jeopardize the historic opportunity to forge a new path for Syria. The United States is trying to mediate a ceasefire.