Business & Government

Middle East Expert On What Could Happen Following Iran’s Missile Strike

Dr. Gregory Gause at Bush School D.C. says how Israel chooses to respond will determine if and how the conflict escalates.
By Texas A&M University Division of Marketing and Communications October 2, 2024

ARAD, ISRAEL - OCTOBER 2: A soldier inspects remains of a missile on October 2, 2024 in Arad, Israel. Last night Iran launched a missile strike on Israel saying the attack was retaliation and citing assassinations they believe Israel carried out in Tehran and Damascus. The attack represents a further escalation in the Middle East conflict. (Photo by Erik Marmor/Getty Images)
A soldier inspects remains of a missile on Oct. 2, 2024 in Arad, Israel.

Erik Marmor/Getty Images

 

Dr. Gregory Gause, professor at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service, says, “The ball is now in Israel’s court,” following what he calls a “largely unsuccessful” Iranian missile attack yesterday.

Gause is a Middle East scholar at The Bush School D.C. who is knowledgeable about the regional setting, the interests of foreign powers involved in the conflict and American policy.

He says how Israel chooses to respond will determine if and how the Middle East conflict escalates.

“A minor Israeli reaction, as occurred in April after the first Iranian attack on Israel, and things settle down on the Iranian front,” Gause says. “A major Israeli response could lead to an exchange of fire between the two that draws in the U.S. What is very clear is that the Israeli government takes little heed of American warnings and pleas to limit its military actions. Israel is now fighting a four-front war — Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank (in a quiet way) and Iran. That is a lot of fronts.

“But there also seems to be a sense among the Israelis that they are on a winning streak,” Gause says. “This might tempt them to try to settle accounts with Iran, rather than just respond symbolically. Meanwhile, Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon continues, and its war in Gaza, while at a slower pace than previously, also continues. The big question in Lebanon is whether Hezballah can mount any kind of resistance.”

Gause is available for immediate interviews.

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