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The plight of Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370) is one of the biggest mysteries in aviation history, but an interdisciplinary research team led by a Texas A&M University at Qatar math professor has theorized the ill-fated plane plunged vertically into the southern Indian Ocean in March 2014.
The researchers’ computer simulations lead to the forensic assertion that a 90-degree nosedive explains the lack of debris or spilled oil in the water near where the plane is presumed to have crashed. The research was the cover story in the April 2015 issue of Notices of the American Mathematical Society (see the team’s paper here.)
Dr. Goong Chen is an applied mathematician who teaches and researches at Texas A&M at Qatar and Texas A&M University’s main campus in College Station, Texas, USA. He led the interdisciplinary team of collaborators from Texas A&M, Penn State, Virginia Tech, MIT and the Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute (QEERI) in simulating and modeling what might have happened to the plane. His research is supported by the QNRF National Priority Research Project Grant #5-674-1-114.
The researchers used applied mathematics and computational fluid dynamics to conduct numerical simulations on the RAAD Supercomputer at Texas A&M at Qatar of a Boeing 777 plunging into the ocean, a so-called “water entry” problem in applied mathematics and aerospace engineering. The team simulated five different scenarios, including a gliding water entry similar to the one Capt. Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger skillfully performed when US Airways flight 1549 landed in the middle of New York City’s Hudson River, a feat that’s referred to as “the miracle on the Hudson.”
Chen said based on all available evidence — especially the lack of floating debris or oil spills near the area of the presumed crash — the mostly likely theory is that the plane entered the water at a vertical or steep angle.
In any rescue and recovery effort of airplane crashes in water, the look for floating debris and oil is key. For example, for the disaster of Air France’s flight 447 on 1 June 2009, 3,500 pieces of floating debris have been recovered.
So, Chen wondered, why has there been no debris found at all so far for MH370?
The fluid dynamic simulations indicate, for a vertical water entry of the plane, that there would be no large bending moment, which is what happens when an external force, or moment, is applied to a structural element (such as a plane), which then causes the fuselage to buckle and break up. As the vertical water-entry is the smoothest with only small bending moment in contrast with other angles of entry, the aircraft is less likely to experience “global failure,” or break up on entry near the ocean surface, which would explain the lack of debris or oil near the presumed crash site.
Based also on the suggestions of other aviation experts, Chen said in such a situation the wings would have broken off almost immediately and, along with other heavy debris, would have sunk to the bottom of the ocean, leaving little or no trace to be spotted.
“The true final moments of MH370 are likely to remain a mystery until someday when its black box is finally recovered and decoded,” Chen said. “But forensics strongly supports that MH370 plunged into the ocean in a nosedive.”
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Media contact: Lesley Kriewald, lesley.kriewald@qatar.tamu.edu or Dr. Goong Chen, goong.chen@qatar.tamu.edu
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Good theory, what is the flight path of a 777 which runs out of fuel at altitude? Determining this would lend strength to the assumptions.
Such BS.If the mystery is solved per Yahoo,where is it? Texas Agriculture and mechanical at Qatar? Give me a break.Computer simulations can’t even get a 5 day weather forecast correct so this is just researchers getting a grant to spew out an opinion.As Mr. Chen says-”it remains a mystery” but if you give me another grant($$$$) I will gladly pursue this further.
5 day weather model average at >75% accuracy these days
You obviously don’t live in Michigan. They can’t even get the daily forecast correct here 50% of the time.
Yeah, the faultiness of computers in science is why we haven’t mapped the human genome, gone to the moon, or learned what happened to Richard III yet.
You sir are a cynic.
BTW, weather forecasts are pretty darn accurate, and they are based on historical data. Cut these academics some slack for trying to solve a problem without meaningful historical data.
Dan,
Can i get your tinfoil hat for you?
i reality..just another guess….pointless
This is good and sound thinking with one exception. What happens when it reached crush depth? What would be crush depth? Would debris come to the surface?
Crush depth is the point where a sealed object is crushed by the pressure of the surrounding ocean. The key word is sealed. If the object in question is not sealed than water from the inside will leak into the object thus allowing for an equalization of the two. This explains why items like coffee cups, whine jugs from ancient times, and broken fuel sulages, are not crushed on the ocean floor.
This is not even story for small kids. What parameters this professor used to calculated impact and who took it for him during free falling plane. His assumption of vertical impact is as good as anybody’s Based whole calculations on wrong assumptions resulted in wrong answer. If this prof. “Albert” don’t know this, hi shouldn’t be teaching
Has anyone come to the conclusion that maybe this plane never crashed to begin with? That’s where I’m at with this! Something should have been found by now! Airplanes do not just disappear and completely vanish out of thin air or into the ocean without any trace of anything? I believe our government knows a lot more then what they are leading us to believe?!
“But forensics strongly supports that MH370 plunged into the ocean in a nosedive.”
What forensics?
A 90-degree nosedive into ocean means it has to be a deliberate act; full-throttle, straight dive. Let’s see Mythbusters simulate this one!
Absolutely impossible! This math professor has either never left a classroom or has never taken a physics course. Water is 784 times more dense than air at sea level. The impact of the nose of the plane with the water at 1000 + Kmh would be virtually the same as flying into the side of a mountain. There is absolutely NO WAY that any plane would stay in tact with this type of impact. Just another person who is looking for attention.
Exactly what I thought when I read that bogus article. It is very obvious that Chen thinks aircraft are made out of some kind of solid unbreakable material which would side right into water at 600mph and not break up at all. OK, he did mention that the wings would break away but, that aircraft nose would also be crushed. Debris would be everywhere.
Agree.
More likely went up to high altitude depressurized to deploy O2. went back down until O2 ran out. Back up to high altitude to kill everyone quick, then soft water landing and leave ditch valve open. Plane sinks intact
Not to mention an aircraft nosediving from any high altitude is likely to breakup even before impact.
You’re right. I guess that is why professional divers always disintegrate and explode in to pieces from the 10 meter board.
I agree. Not only that, but oil floats. No matter if the plane went in & got “crushed” too quickly for air pockets to escape w debris (some would still eventually rise), oil would still rise to the top. & computer simulations are one thing, but actual model to scale simulation would be much more insightful I’m sure.
Oh, really? Air France 447 had a nose dive impact at ocean and disseminated with debris all over, how to explain that with this “theory”?
Air France 447 did not nose dive. It hit belly first.
AF447 hit the water in a relatively level attitude (slightly pitch up). Recovered seats and bodies showed compression damage consistent with essentially falling out of the sky with the bottom of the aircraft striking the water.
utter bunk, what about the wings? they would shear off and dump all the oil.
and theres still now way the body would stay together hitting the water at 100 plus MPH.
this article is pure manure.
Several jets have crashed vertically into the water. None, to my knowledge, failed to leave debris fields. The 777, like all other passenger jets, can glide to a horizontal landing on water if they run out of fuel at altitude.
this is utter rubbish, at flight speeds theres no angle that would allow a plane of that size to remain intact. the real question is why anyone would take this theory serisouly.
rubbish
Wow, it took a bunch of braniacs to come up with a the same possible theory that was mentioned as a possible scenario when this was at the height of the news cycle. This theory
does not have the slightest clue as to where the plane is. What a waste of time.
Highly improbable. A steep or vertical dive typically results in elevator and/or vertical stabilizer failure which then tear away from the airframe. The resultant loss of stability causes the aircraft to flutter which at high speeds often leads to disintegration of the wings or even the fuselage. Finally, on impact, the engine are likely to twist the wings and rip them apart – the behavior of water at high speed is akin to flying into a concrete wall. The damage is typically catastrophic.
The most probable way to get an aircraft, with wing mounted engines, down in one piece is a level, inverted approach at low air speed.
As for an explanation of the absence of wreckage, most parts on an aircraft will eventually sink. This only leaves unbroken bottles and other inherently floating objects which are likely to disperse over the course of a week or two – less if there is rough weather.
Personally I am not a big conspiracy fan, however the most likely explanation is also the most obvious. Namely, the aircraft impacted in a remote region on-land and has simply not yet been discovered. Aircraft virtually disappear from sight if they dive directly at the ground or into a mountain face. I once saw a video of a fighter bomber that dived into a rice paddy field. Two hours later you would never have known it had crashed.
What’s the probability of a plane, that has run out of fuel, going into a nose dive and hitting the water almost vertically? Is that the likely behavior?
Hi
My only concern here is this key question from the professor
“So, Chen wondered, why has there been no debris found at all so far for MH370?”
Fact: The debris was not found
What is the probability that the debris may have been found…if the search continued?
I would like the see the raw and calculated probabilities based on your simulation?
Would you be willing to share this data?
Nice work on the theories and case study.
That was my original thought. The plane hit with such speed at a vertical angle , allowing the plane to plunge at a depth which would not only cause the plane capsule to implode at the specific depth but not allow debris to rise, or minimally- with the exception of an oil slick which they did spot. It will be found, it’s just very very deep.
Interesting theory, except that the fuel, a medium extracted hydrocarbon not unlike diesel fuel or kerosene, would have risen to the surface and shown as a sheen, aka slick, for miles and days. The fuel is stored in the wings and if they had been sheared off, the fuel would have leaked out and been visible.
“….. Chen said in such a situation the wings would have broken off almost immediately…..”
BTW, it takes very little oil to look like a lot.
Was the Deborah number included in your model? A plane entering the water vertically is going to have a velocity that makes the water act like a solid. The plane will disintegrate on impact. The most likely scenario is the plane did a water landing like Sully and sank intact.
ChE ’82
And it took a Mathmatician to figure this out? I should have an honorary doctorate in math. That’s what I thought the first time I heard of this. Cripes!
I can buy the mathematical projection until the wings break off. That must produce floatable debris. There is insulation for example, shards of wiring looms, oil reservoirs and fractured hydraulic lines. Lots of aviation fuel is carried in wings. Broken fuel lines will bleed out copiously. Last under this theory the intact fuselage and the black boxes should have squawked loud and clear aiding in rapid location. Sorry its not adding up.
Convincing analysis. But consider the following, 1. The velocity and the weight of the plane, falling from nearly 35000 feet, with both engines running (cruise settings). Then, calculate the ‘ impact force’. The wings will most up certainly tear off and break consider a bird hit on the panes wing at much lesser airspeed.
2. It takes some time for the plane to travel from 35000 feet to the sea level. The pilots did not call, why? 3. It appears that, despite the computer analysis, the plane would disintegrate on impact, simply, because of the plane’s mass and velocity creating huge impact force.
Y’all are such sell outs. LOL
Questions:
1.
If the airplane hit the ocean at an exact angle of 90 degrees, wouldn’t tidal movement negate the clean entry? (The water is moving after all)
2.
How does the wing design lift mechanism allow for a perfect vertical entry; wouldn’t it send the plane into a surface at a slightly skewed angle because air is moving two different speeds over the top and bottom of the wing?
No disrespect Mr. Chen but I am going with Alien Abduction….If plane sunk to the bottom of the ocean, why haven’t sonar picked up any sign of the plane… The ocean floor have been searched in the area where the plane went down…Nothing.
I think outside of Alien abduction, that this was terrorism, these people were kidnapped. plane was diverted somewhere by someone on board. I think this mystery will be solved in the long run.
I hate it but I think I agree with Dawn as a this being an act of terrorism. The thought that they may have a plane that is capable of carrying a weapon be it a nuke, bio, or chemical to anywhere they want is a very terrible possibility.
I agree.
i still believe in the Israeli theory about where the plane is. after all fishermen on that morning saw the low flying plane near the off limits island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
I can’t deny the possibilities of terrorist actions nor can I deny Alien obduction.The possibilities of being lost in a remote part of the world still exists. I’m not convinced that there wouldn’t be something that would come to the surface in one form or another.The lack of communication to any airport that they were in distress also adds confusion to the where about of the aircraft. It just vanished? In this day and time someone should come up with a real possibility and lean towards the most realistic thought of a jet that just vanished.Lastly there have been many documented reports of UFO in flight beyond our capability….?
If this theory is viable my next question would be how long would it take before the submerged aircraft would start to leak any secrets? By this I mean the aircraft would be under massive amounts of pressure under the ocean, probably enough to cause the windows to release, if this happens then it wouldn’t be long before floating debris would eventually wash up or be spotted or even dredged up. Let’s hope for the relatives of all those who were lost on that tragic flight that a clue is soon found so they can have at least some closure.
Absolute rubbish…………. no floating seat cushions………… no luggage…… no insulation……. hitting water is worse than hitting concrete……. even Sully lost an engine on impact with a perfect ditching.
I cannot begin to understand the theory submitted by this academic. perhaps he should consider studying aeronautical engineering in his spare time which might allow him to comprehend the forces brought to bear on an aircraft crashing into the ocean without a trace of debris. Total rubbish. I hope for his sake that the DFDR and CVR will eventually be found to dispel his theory.
This theory would of have had the plan break in two secondary to surface tension and peripheral force.
More BS not even close…
Yep…
MH370 goes missing without a trace.
Russia shoots down Malaysian flight, but wreckage is guarded closely by rebels to prevent real investigation.
Classroom math teacher modeling used to distract the rhetoric from the real agenda.
Typical media.
Not a chance that it hit water and did not leave a trace. No matter how or where if it broke up in the water, there is simply too much buoyant material on the modern jet airliner for some material to have not been found or washed up somewhere..
I agree with most of the comments. Remember what speed an object falls? If it wasn’t out of fuel, and someone was able to try for a near vertical impact, then what about the other factors such as winds and instrument accuracy? The other sci-fi explanations make just about of sense. I suppose we’ll just have to wait for real evidence/explanations.
Doesn’t anyone with some knowledge of the real world screen these type of “news” items before they are selected for Yahoo news listings? Items like this are just ridiculous to see on the net as “fact”. I thought Yahoo was a little more sensible than the grocery store reveal all scandal sheets but I guess not…
The fluid structure interaction simulation can be fairly complex and would have to involve assumptions. Think of it as incremental procedure interacting between 2 partial differential equations of structural mechanics and fluid dynamics . He must be basing his results on the observation of structural hotspots he see. In any case I would respect this work and would avoid careless statements
questions : autopilot can glide a plane even if the engines ran of fuel ? would it really nosedive if ran out of fuel ?
777 has auto-landing capability, would be similar to “Miracle on the Hudson”, then it sank with “all hands on board”, …no floating debris…
Suffices to note that Dr. Chen’s background is abstract theoretical mathematics, not aeronautics and, moreover, this article was published in a pure mathematics magazine, not a peer-reviewed journal of aeronautical engineering. So, wouldn’t take this ‘theory’ too seriously.
I would agree with the water is like concrete theory…
except some 30 yrs ago, a value jet crashed into the everglades.
it completely disappeared, the only reason they knew where it was, was because someone saw it.
from the air, the only clue was that the water vegetation was disturbed, and it had the shape of a plane nose on.
A hijacking and taking the plane to another country also wouldn’t leave debris in the ocean. That theory is just as possible and the theory above.
Eventually they’ll find the remains of MH370 in the jungles of SE Asia or the Himalayas.
Well, there could have been no oil found because the plane was out of fuel.
Water is not earth, the reason there’s barely no debris found when a plane plunges vertically into the earth is because most of it compresses and gets burried, fuel spills and fires most of the time gets rid of the debris left behind, creates a crater kind of like a meteorite. Water on the other hand had different properties which he failed to add into his theory. A strong structure has flaws, and this adds into planes too. If the tanks on the wings were to be empty due to fuel starvation would break apart due to being lighter at the moment of impact making it float for at least a few hrs or even days as proven in previous crashes, and not only the wings, but the tail section is also light along with some broken pieces and luggage escaping from crevices. It doesn’t just stay in only piece and sinks to the button of the ocean, oxigen inside the plane has to escape away which includes a talk on water pressure and fuselage. Now let’s consider there is fuel on the wings making it heavy, some pieces would still break off and stay afloat for hours including bodies. Not adding that the wings would be ruptured and start a huge oil spill along with hydraulic fluids and what not. Also the depth pressure should have at least activated the pings on the plane making it easier to find. You can’t just do math and hope it works on your favour, no two accidents are the same. A theory is just a theory until proven a fact which he failed to do.
I love how all these armchair “experts” who never made it past college algebra are disputing what a leading mathematician has postulated. It’s just a theory folks and if you can’t understand the math, and there aren’t many who do, you can’t even make a judgement. Silly people.